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压力大发展机遇更大 2019年宏观经济十大猜想

2019年01月03日 10:42:55字号:T|T

    2019NIAN,MIANDUIDUANQIYUZHANGQI、ZHOUQIXINGYUJIEGOUXINGDENGDEWENTI,JINGJIZOUSHIJIANGRUHEYANYI、ZHENGCEZUHERUHEXUNQIUZUIYOUDAPEI?ZONGHELAIKAN,JINGUAN2019NIANJINGJIXIAXINGYALIRENGDA,DANJINGJIMEIYOUSHISUFENGXIAN,FAZHANJIYUZEGENGDA,GEXIANGGAIGEJIANGCHIXUSHENRU。

优乐彩彩票网址    ZHONGZHISHIDAI GDPZENGSULVEFANGHUAN

    ZHUANJIAYUJI,2019NIANJINGJIZENGZHANGRENGYOUXIAXINGYALI,GDPZENGSUHUOZAI6.3%ZUOYOU。

    ZHANGJIANGZHENGQUANSHOUXIHONGGUANZHAIQUANYANJIUYUANZHAOWEIBIAOSHI,2019NIAN,JINGJIXIAXINGYALIHUOJIXUSHIFANG,GDPZENGSUHUOHUILUOZHI6.1%ZUOYOU,JINGJICHUDIQIWENXUYAODENGDAOSANJIDUMOZHIHOU。2019NIAN,ZHUYAOHONGGUANFENXIANGPUBIANCUNZAIXIAXINGYALI,QIZHONGDICHANHEZHIZAOYETOUZIZENGSUHUIYOUSUOHUILUO,KAOLVJIJIANTOUZIDUICHONGHOU,TOUZIZENGSURENGKENENGHUILUO。

    GUOJINZHENGQUANSHOUXIHONGGUANFENXISHIBIANQUANSHUIBIAOSHI,CONGSHIJIXUQIUJIAODUKAN,JINGJIZENGSUKUAISUXIAJIANGQIYIGUO,2019NIANGDPZENGSUZONGTIZOUSHIWEIQIANDIHOUGAO。ZAIWAIBUHUANJINGFASHENGBIANHUA、NEIBUJIEGOUJIXUDIAOZHENGDEBEIJINGXIA,YUJI2019NIANGDPZENGZHANGMUBIAOJIANGWEI6.0%-6.5%。FENJIDUKAN,1-4JIDUGDPTONGBIZENGSUFENBIEWEI6.2%、6.1%、6.2%HE6.3%,QUANNIANHUOWEI6.2%。

    DANZAIZHONGGUOSHEHUIKEXUEYUANFUYUANZHANGGAOPEIYONGKANLAI,GDPGUIMO、ZENGSUBUSHIWEIYIMUBIAO,SHENZHIBUSHIZUIZHONGYAODEMUBIAO,ZHILIANGHEXIAOYICAISHIZUIZHONGYAODE。GENGGAOZHILIANG、GENGYOUXIAOLV、GENGJIAGONGPING、GENGKECHIXU,SHIYIXINFAZHANLINIANWEIZHIDAOSUOMIAOZHUNDEGAOZHILIANGFAZHANJIEDUANDEFAZHANMOSHI。“JUEBUNENGGDPGAOYIDIANJIUSONGYIKOUQI,DIYIDIANJIUJINZHANGQILAI,PIYUYINGDUI。”

    JIANSHUIJIANGFEI CHIZILVBUHUIBIAOSHENG

优乐彩彩票网址    2019NIAN,JIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEJIANGJIALITIXIAO,SHISHIGENGDAGUIMODEJIANSHUIJIANGFEI。ZHUANJIARENWEI,JIANSHUIJIANGFEIZHUYAOLAIZITIGAOCAIZHENGCHIZIYUJIANZHIJIANSHOU,“GENGDAGUIMO”YUSHICAIZHENGCHIZIKENENGJIAODAFUDUTIGAO。

    CHIZIGUIMOSHIFOUTUPO3%?BUSHAOZHUANJIARENWEIKENENGXINGBUDA。CONGLISHISHUJUGUANCHA,WOGUOCAIZHENGCHIZILVMUBIAOCONGWEITUPOGUO3%。GAOPEIYONGJINQIBIAOSHI,JIANSHUIJIANGFEIBUNENGYIZENGFAGUOZHAIHECHIZIZUOWEIZIJINLAIYUAN,BACAIZHENGCHIZIZHANGDPBIZHONGSUODINGZAI3%YINEI,YEYOUCHUYUWENYUQIDEKAOLV。

优乐彩彩票网址    XINSHIDAIZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAPANXIANGDONGRENWEI,CAIZHENGZHICHUZENGSUHUICHUXIANXIAHUA,ERJIJIANTOUZISUOXUZIJINZENGJIA,ZHEIGEZIJINQUEKOUHUITONGGUOGUANGYICAIZHENGKUOZHANGLAIMIBU。DIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIJIANGCHENGWEIBUCHONGJIJIANTOUZIZIJINQUEKOUDEZHONGYAOLAIYUAN,FEIBIAO、RONGZIPINGTAIBUHUIDAFUFANGLIANG。

    JIANGZHUNKEQI SHICHANGLIUDONGXINGWUYU

    ZHUANJIARENWEI,2019NIANYANGXINGJIANGJIANCHIWENJIANDEHUOBIZHENGCEQIEGENGJIAZHUZHONGSONGJINSHIDU,BAOCHILIUDONGXINGHELICHONGYU。

优乐彩彩票网址    “CONGZONGTIFANGXIANGSHANGKAN,JIANGZHUNJIANGSHICHUANGZAOXIANGDUIKUANSONGHUOBITIAOJIANDEZHONGYAOGONGJU,YUJI2019NIANJIANGZHUN3-4CI。RUGUOJIANGXIDEHUA,GENGDAKENENGXINGZAIYUJIANGDIMLFHEOMOLILV,JIANGDIDAIKUANJIZHUNLILVKENENGXINGBUDA,DANYEBUNENGPAICHUZHEIGEKENENGXING。”BIANQUANSHUICHENG。

    JIAOTONGYINXINGSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIALIANPINGBIAOSHI,“DINGXIANGSONGDONG”KENENGSHI2019NIANHUOBIZHENGCEGONGJUZUHEDECAOZUOFANGXIANG,ER“DINGXIANGJIANGZHUN+HUOBISHICHANGGONGJUDIAOZHENG”JIANGSHIJIBENDEGONGJUZUHE。YUJI2019NIANHUOBIZHENGCEJIANGTONGGUOYIXILIEHUOBISHICHANGGONGJUDEYUNYONG,BAOZHANGSHICHANGLIUDONGXINGCHUZAIHELICHONGYUSHUIPING,CUJINFEIXINDAIRONGZIPINGWENFAZHAN,PINGHENGSHICHANGLIUDONGXINGBODONG,ZHICHISHICHANGJIGOUZUOHAOLIUDONGXINGQIXIANPIPEI,SHIDUJIANGDIHUOBISHICHANGLILVSHUIPING,YOUXIAOKONGZHILIUDONGXINGFENGXIAN。

优乐彩彩票网址    SHUANGXIANGBODONG RENMINBIHUILVQUWEN

    CONGRENMINBIHUILVKAN,RENMINBIBIANZHIYALIGENGDUOLAIZIYUZHONGMEIJINGJIJIBENMIANDEFENHUA。

    “CONGJINGJIZHOUQI、LICHABIANHUA、MEIYUANZOUSHI、SHICHANGQINGXUHEZHENGCEBIANJIEDENGFANGMIANRUSHOUPANDUAN,2019NIANMEIYUAN‘SHIWEI’,ERRENMINBI‘QUWEN’。”BIANQUANSHUIBIAOSHI。

    PINGANZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAZHANGMINGRENWEI,2019NIANRENMINBIDUIMEIYUANHUILVRENGYOUYIDINGBIANZHIYALI,WEILAIZOUSHIJIANGZHUYAOQUJUEYUWAIBUHUANJING。TONGSHI,YAOJINYIBUTUIJINHUILVXINGCHENGJIZHIGAIGE。

    WUJIAWUYOU DITONGZHANGSHIDAILAILIN

优乐彩彩票网址    2019NIAN,WUJIADEYALIBUHUITAIDA,GENGBUZHIYUZHIYUEHUOBIZHENGCEKONGJIAN,DANXUYAOJINGTITONGSUOFENGXIAN。

    ZHONGGUORENMINDAXUEFUXIAOZHANGLIUYUANCHUNYUCE,SUIZHENEIWAIGONGXUPINGHENGDEJINYIBUDIAOZHENG,2019NIANJIAGESHUIPINGZONGTIBAOCHIJIAOWEIWENHEZHUANGTAI。YOUYUGUOJIYUANYOUJIAGEXIANZHUHUILUOJIXIANGDUIJIAOGAODEJISHUXIAOYING,PPIZHANGFULVEYOUSUOXIAO,ERSUIZHESHIPINJIAGEJINYIBUHUISHENG,CPIZHANGFULVEYOUKUODA,CPIYUPPIQUEKOUJIXUSUOXIAO。YUJIQUANNIANCPISHANGZHANG2.4%,PPISHANGZHANG3.4%,GDPPINGJIANZHISHUWEI2.8%。

优乐彩彩票网址    HAITONGZHENGQUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIAJIANGCHAORENWEI,2019NIANTONGSUOFENGXIANDAYUTONGZHANGFENGXIAN。ZI2018NIANSIJIDUYILAI,SHANGPINJIAGECHUXIANDAFUXIAJIANG,SHIDEPPITONGSUOFENGXIANDAZENG;SUIZHEPPIDAFUXIAJIANG,CPIFEISHIPINJIAGEKAISHIMINGXIANHUILUO。CPISHIPINJIAGEBUFEN,ZHUJIAZHANGQIZOUSHIYUZHONGGUOJINGJIZHOUQIGAODUXIANGGUAN,SHUOMINGZONGXUQIUDUISHIPINJIAGEYEYOUJUEDINGXINGYINGXIANG。SUIRANDANGQIANSHENGZHUHEMUZHUKUCUNCHUYULISHIDIWEI,DANSIJIDUYILAIZHUJIAMINGXIANHUILUO,YINGHEJINGJIZONGXUQIUHUILUOXIANGGUAN。CONGGENGZHANGSHIJIANKAN,WOGUOJIANGJINRUDITONGZHANGSHIDAI。

优乐彩彩票网址    SHUANGXIANGDIAOKONG LOUSHIZHANGXIAOJIZHI“JIANZAIXIANSHANG”

优乐彩彩票网址    ZHUANJIARENWEI,FANGDICHANDIAOKONGNANYIFANGSONG,JIANLIZHANGXIAOJIZHIRENGSHIGUANJIAN。

    BIANQUANSHUIYUJI,WEILAIFANGDICHANDIAOKONGJIANGYI“DUANQIXINGZHENGXIANZHITUICHU”+“ZHANGXIAOJIZHICHUTAI”ZUHEDEFANGSHIZHANKAI,TUIDONGFANGDICHANZHENGCECONG“XINGZHENGCUOSHI”XIANG“ZONGHESHICE”ZHUANBIAN。CONGZHANGQIKAN,BAOKUOCHENGXIANGHUJIHETUDIZHIDU、FANGDICHANXIANGGUANSHUISHOUZHIDU、ZHUFANGZULINTIXIJIANSHEDENGDUOGEFANGMIANDEGAIGEHAIXUYAOJINYIBUSHENRU,ZHUBUJIANLIYISHICHANGWEIDAOXIANG,YIGONGQIUPINGHENGWEIMUBIAODEFANGDICHANSHICHANGZHANGXIAOJIZHI。

优乐彩彩票网址    CIWAI,ZHENGCEBIANHUARENGJIANGSHI“YINCHENGSHICE”,GEDIWUCHAYIHUAFANGSONGZHENGCEDEKENENGXINGBUDA。

    TIZHENNEIXU XIAOFEIWENBUZENGZHANG

    2016NIANQI,ZHONGGUOGUDINGZICHANTOUZIMINGYIZENGSUYIDIYUGDPMINGYIZENGSU,YIWEIZHEDUIYUZHONGGUOJINGJIERYAN,TOUZIQUDONGMOSHIBUKECHIXU。ZHUANJIARENWEI,GONGGUZHONGDENGSHOURUJIECENGXIAOFEISHIWENXIAOFEIZHONGDIAN。YUJI2019NIANSHEHUIXIAOFEIPINLINGSHOUZONGEZENGSUYUEWEI9.0%-9.2%。

优乐彩彩票网址    JIANGCHAORENWEI,CONGMUQIANJINGJIXINGSHILAIKAN,NEIXUQIANLIDAYUWAIXU。GUOQU10NIAN,NEIXUZENGSUCHIXUXIAHUA,QIZHONGDAIBIAOXIAOFEIDESHELINGZENGSUCONG22%JIANGZHI9%,XIAHUAYIFANGMIANYUANYURENKOUJIEGOUBIANHUA,LINGYIZHONGYAOYUANYINLAIZIZHAIWUYALI。2019NIAN,YIKAOCHIXUDEJIANSHUIJIANGFEI,YOUWANGJIANQINGJUMINZHAIWUFUDAN。

    HENGDAJITUANSHOUXIJINGJIXUEJIARENZEPINGBIAOSHI,WOGUOXIAOFEIFENJITEZHENGMINGXIAN。ZHANGQILAIKAN,XIAOFEISHENGJIQUSHIRENGZAIJIXU;DUANQIKAN,SHECHIPINXIAOFEIQUANQIUDIYIDAGUOYUPINDUODUOSHENGXINGYUSANSIXIANJIYIXIACHENGSHIBINGCUN,GAODUANBAIJIUJIAGECHIXUSHANGZHANGYUDIDUANBAIJIUJINGZHENGJILIEBINGCUN,CILEIXIANXIANGXUYAOGAODUZHONGSHI。KUODAXIAOFEIYINGDANGCONGZENGJIAJUMINSHOURUHETIGAOJUMINBIANJIXIAOFEIQINGXIANGLIANGFANGMIANRUSHOU。

    WEIYUCHOUMOU WAIMAO“WEIZHONGYOUJI”

优乐彩彩票网址    ZHANWANG2019NIANWAIMAOXINGSHI,JINCHUKOUZENGSULIAOYOUSUOXIAXING,DANYECUNZAIJIJIYINSU。

    TIANFENGZHENGQUANYANJIUSUOHONGGUANTUANDUIFUZERENSONGXUETAOYUJI,2019NIANCHUKOUZENGSUJIANGYOUSUOHUILUO,DANKENENGLVEHAOYUYUQI。DUI2019NIANCHUKOUDEFUMIANYINGXIANGZHUYAOLAIZIWAIXUZOURUO。

    CONGJINKOUKAN,BIANQUANSHUIRENWEI,GUONEIWAIXUQIUTONGBUZOURUOJIANGDAOZHI2019NIANJINKOUZOURUO,DANYECUNZAILIANGFANGMIANJIJIYINSU:YISHIJIDIANCHANPINJINKOUZENGSUKENENGCHUZAIJIAOGAODESHUIPING,ERSHIKUODAJINKOUZHENGCEDETIZHENZUOYONG。

    GUIFANJUZHAI CAISHUITIZHIGAIGESHENHUA

优乐彩彩票网址    2019NIAN,CAISHUITIZHIGAIGEJIANGSHENRUTUIJIN,JIANQUANDIFANGSHUITIXI,BINGGUIFANZHENGFUJUZHAIRONGZIJIZHI。JIANLIXIANDAICAIZHENGZHIDU、WANSHANSHUISHOUTIXI,XUYAOYIXILIEFALVZHICHENG。

    ZHONGGUOZHENGFADAXUECAISHUIFAYANJIUZHONGXINZHURENSHIZHENGWENBIAOSHI,YAOZHUAJINZHIDING《ZHONGHUARENMINGONGHEGUOCAIZHENGFA》,DUIZHENGFUSHOUZHIXINGWEIJISHIQUAN、CAIQUAN、ZHICHUZERENXIANGPIPEIDEZHONGYANGHEDIFANGCAIZHENGGUANXIDENGZUOCHUMINGQUEGUIDING,WEIFENSHUIZHICAIZHENGTIZHITIGONGFALVBAOZHANG。JIAKUAIZHIDING《CAIZHENGZHUANYIZHIFUFA》,ZHIDING《ZHENGFUZHAIWUFA》,JIANQUANYUSUANFAPEITAOZHIDU。YAOJIAKUAIZHIJIESHUIGAIGEHEDIFANGSHUIJIANSHE。ZENGZHISHUIGAIGEJIXUZAISHUILV、KOUCHUHEZHENGGUANZHIDUSHANGYUYIWANSHANBINGJINKUAIWANCHENGLIFA;TIGAOZHIJIESHUIBIZHONGZEZHUYAOYIKAOGERENSUODESHUIGAIGE;XIAJUEXINTUIJINFANGDICHANSHUIGAIGE,PEITAOTUIJINXIAOFEISHUI、HUANBAOSHUI、ZIYUANSHUIGAIGE。

    CIWAI,ZHUANJIARENWEI,YINGTUIJINSHUISHOUZHENGGUANFANGSHIZHUANBIANHEYIFAZHISHUI,JINYIBUWANSHANSHUISHOUZHENGGUANFALV;JIANQUANGUOJISHUISHOUFALVTIXI,SHENDUCANYUQUANQIUSHUISHOUZHILI。

优乐彩彩票网址    WENGANGGAN ZHUZHONGGANGGANKECHIXU

    JIANGCHAORENWEI,HONGGUANZHAIWULVYIJINGQIWEN,2019NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIYOUWANGJINRUWENGANGGANJIEDUAN,GEXIANGHUOBIHERONGZIZENGSUYOUWANGZHUJIANJIANDIQIWEN。XINDAIBAOCHIXIANGDUIWENDING,QIYEZHAIQUANHEDIFANGZHENGFUZHUANXIANGZHAIBAOCHIZENGZHANG,YOUWANGTUIDONG2019NIANSHEHUIRONGZIZONGLIANGZENGSUJIGEXIANGHUOBIZENGSUJIANDIQIWEN。

    GUOJIAJINRONGYUFAZHANSHIYANSHILISHIZHANGLIYANGRENWEI,ZAIGANGGANYUNZUOGOUCHENGZHENGGEJINRONGYUNXINGJICHUDEQINGKUANGXIA,ZHUIQIUDEMUBIAOSHIRANGGANGGANKECHIXU。YISHITUIJINQIYEGAIGE、GUOQIGAIGE;ERSHIZHAIWUCHULIMUDESHIGAISHANQIYEHUANJING,MINQIYAOHUODEHEGUOQITONGDENGDAIYU;SANSHIYAOYANGEZUNXUNSHICHANGHUAYUANZE;SISHIYUFAYOUJU,BUNENGLINGDAO“PAIBANJIUDING”,ZICHANCHUZHIYAOYOUFAKEYI。

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